TylerD's Market Summary

GM!

Today's news includes:

• Yuga gets busy

• TwelveFold reactions and a mistake

• The Summoning is here

• A major 21-punk sale

• CSGO skin sells for $160k

• ChatGPT-4 launches

🗓 Yuga's Busy Month

In fall of 2022, Yuga co-founders Garga and Gordon Goner said that they had mostly completed hiring and onboarding and were about to pick up the pace in execution.

They have certainly done that.

The Trial of Jimmy the Monkey kicked off on Christmas Day, leading into the Dookey Dash game starting late January.

The primary bear case for BAYC and Yuga leading into Dookey Dash had been the execution risk of their utility-based nature, and Yuga's ability to execute on their roadmap.

And with many seemingly rooting for them to fail, they knocked it out of the park with Dookey Dash.

Yuga proved they could deliver a fun game and "gamified mint experience" with the stakes as high as ever.

Now fast forward to March, and these are the different projects in the air, and the stakes are even higher:

• TwelveFold distribution March 14

• Dookey Dash-> Toad Mode-> The Summoning (March 15)

• ApeCoin unlock on March 16 (and the planning of sinks)

• The Otherside 2nd Trip (March 25)

And we may have seen a sign with TwelveFold that some of these balls in the air might be dropping.

🙈The TwelveFold Mistake

The TwelveFold auction seemed like an overwhelming success.

The team's first venture into generative art, on Bitcoin, saw 288 TwelveFold NFTs auctioned off with a min price of 2.25 Bitcoin and a high of 7.11.

That was effectively a $50,000 floor.

All based on a handful of previews, as the art had not been displayed in advance.

Well the outputs were finally released this week, and there have been two major points of feedback:

1. The art lacks variety and was generally underwhelming

2. There was a mistake duplicate in the set

Point 1 is easier to address and highlights a lack of reading by the general NFT crowd.

This was the description of TwelveFold's art from the initial blog:

TwelveFold is a base 12 art system localized around a 12x12 grid, a visual allegory for the cartography of data on the Bitcoin blockchain.

The collection includes highly-rendered 3D elements as well as hand-drawn features which serve as an homage to the ordinal inscriptions currently done by hand. 

That's exactly what was delivered. 

The "base 12 art system" meant that the outputs are essentially in series of 12, and those series each have matching themes with small variances in their output.

FUD squashed.

Point 2 above is harder to defend though.

As the outputs were first being viewed, community members pointed out a duplicate in the set.

Inscriptions #444385 and #446221 had the exact same image (205/300). 

Miguelgarest ⛓ @miguelgarest

Inscription #444385 & #446221 have the same image (205/300) @yugalabs

10:21 AM ∙ Mar 13, 2023

---

251Likes49Retweets

Garga confirmed as much, stating "dupe that was accidentally inscribed will be burned."

That's a high-stakes accident.

This generative art collection of just 300 items, which all sold for $50,000 or more, had a duplicate mistake. 

Mistakes like that should not happen at this level of execution and expectation.

It felt like TwelveFold was rushed out to capitalize on Bitcoin NFT mania, and this lack of quality assurance seems to back up that narrative.

Overall the market does not seem to be talking about this too much and has seemingly shaken it off, and we will see how it impacts the secondary market for TwelveFold.

But it does show a rare mistake from the Yuga team, and raises the concern levels a bit ahead of some major events to come.

🙊The Summoning Is Here

Yuga's The Summoning event starts today after a delay and is launching at a great time with very little else going on in the NFT market.

In the lead-up, volume on Sewer Passes is up 136% on the week to 4,500 ETH.

The floor on unranked Passes is up over 100% at 1.38 ETH, and the Ranked pass floor is up 25% at 2.9 ETH.

The Companion trait is holding a whopping 6.6 ETH floor.

People are ready to gamble on this major event.

But what should we expect

A Quick Preview

Here's what we know about The Summoning and how Sewer Passes fit in:

• Anyone with a Ranked Sewer Pass can participate in The Summoning

• The higher the rank of the Sewer Pass, the better rarity tier for the Power Source that is summoned

• Each power source summoned will be unique and will be needed for the next leg of this game experience

• The top 2,500 scores in Toad Mode unlocked a "companion trait" for The Summoning

• "Unranked" Power Sources have the lowest rarity and are given to the unranked Sewer Passes after the Ranked Power Sources are summoned

So there's going to be a summoning event today and new NFTs will be generated.

Yuga has stated there is no use for Sewer Passes beyond this stage of the game, thus there should not be much of a premium for unused Passes for very long.

Perhaps the most interesting point above to me is the last one - that Unranked Sewer Passes still receive Power Sources.

The spread between Ranked/Unranked Sewer Passes is huge right now - 2.9 ETH to 1.4 ETH.

Once these all turn into Power Sources, I don't see that spread holding.

Is the difference between the lowest-ranked Power Source vs an Unranked one really 1.5 ETH? I find that hard to believe.

It might be the primary inefficiency to attack into this major event.

3.15 11:00 a.m. ET update - The Yuga team clarified in Discord that Void passes are indeed ineligible. So that changes the thesis above and those should be valued at 0.

Overall, expect major volume and attention on this today as the major event in the NFT space, and it very well may dominate into the weekend.

Will Yuga be able to pull it off flawlessly, like Dookey Dash? Or will there be mistakes like TwelveFold?

We will be watching.

🚚 What else is happening in NFTs?

Here is the list of the other major headlines from a slower day in NFTs:

• Trading volume came in just under 27k ETH, with most NFTs down 3%-5% in a very red day

• Yuga's TwelveFold pieces were officially sent to auction winners, with the secondary market opening, with the 1st listing at 150 ETH (10.24 BTC) and the first bid for 13.86 ETH (0.95 BTC)

• Gabe Leydon and Limit Break acquired FreeNFT, a platform for free NFT distribution, furthering its free-to-own mission

• OpenSea added a new "offer protection" feature protecting against flagged items, while Blur added a new notification feature tied to accepted bids and sales

• 21 CyptoPunks were wrapped and then sold into Blur bids in a single $2.4M sale, though the Punk floor didn't flinch and held at 67.1 ETH

• The Porsche Pioneers Co-Pilots airdrop revealed yesterday, holding a 0.17 ETH floor post-reveal

• MemeLand published a new thread summarizing its ecosystem, vision and product plans

🌎 Around Crypto and Web3

A few other Crypto and Web3 headlines that caught my eye:

• The crypto market had a very volatile day, soaring on the CPI news of 6% inflation before falling overnight; BTC +0.6% at $24,600, ETH +0.7% at $1,690

• A CS:GO skin sold for $160,000, marking a top-10 all-time public sale for that game

• A new security exploit is going around tied to Blur signatures, used in some cases to drain wallets of their NFTs using a spoofed signature request made to appear as though it is coming from Blur

• ChatGPT-4 officially launched yesterday, now able to pass the Bar exam, multiple high school AP tests, new visual capabilities, and more

🚀 NFT Total Volume

• Wrapped CryptoPunks (5,891 ETH, 67.1 ETH Floor)

• MAYC (5,132 ETH, 14.1 ETH)

• BAYC (1,711 ETH, 65.2 ETH)

• Otherdeed (1,239 ETH, 1.75 ETH)

• Sewer Pass (1,179 ETH, 1.4 ETH)

📈 NFT Floor Price Increase

• TwelvePepes (120%, 0.18 ETH Floor)

• FreeNFT OG Ticket (16%, 4.55 ETH)

• DeFi Apes (9%, 0.53 ETH)

• AKCB (7%, 1.3 ETH)

• Persistence of Time (7%, 0.23 ETH)

🗓 Upcoming NFT Mints and Reveals

Today is a huge day for new mints and events, with a terrible macro backdrop.

There's a 300-supply Art Blocks Curated drop which will be the focus of the early afternoon.

Then there's a big PROOF art drop collab with the Pace Gallery "Archive of Feelings," critically important for that ecosystem.

And then The Summoning is the wild card and main event of the day.

This may be the biggest day in recent memory for NFTs - buckle up.

• Memes by 6529 (11:00 a.m. ET); 0.06529 ETH mint

• Art Blocks Curated: Ceramics by Charlotte Dann (1:00 p.m. ET); Dutch auction

• The 10k Collection (1:00 p.m. ET); 0.1 ETH mint

• Dreams Never Die - Founder Pass (5:00 p.m. ET); 0.05 ETH mint

• PROOF x Pace: Archive of Feelings (TBD); 0.1 ETH mint

• The Summoning (TBD)

Enjoy this write-up? Follow along with me on Twitter @tyler_did_it or reach out via email tyler.warner@luckytrader.com.

For all volume and floor price data, see Lucky Trader's Project Rankings page.

For all upcoming mints, see Lucky Trader's Project Schedule page.