Will The $BLUR Airdrop Save NFTs?
The $BLUR airdrop is finally here, but will it be enough to save a bleeding NFT market?
TylerD's Market Summary
GM!
Today's post includes:
-BLUR airdrop expectations
-NFT market capitulation
-BTC Punks see a big buy
-Crypto rebounds into CPI
+ more!
🎁 Our $BLUR Valentine's Day Stimmy
The highly anticipated $BLUR airdrop is coming today at noon ET.
Not much is known about the tokenomics, valuation, or how protocol mechanics will change, but expectations are high.
And rumors are already swirling that the valuation will be in the $700M-$1B range when trading opens.
That would be a solid stimulus.
What should we expect?
Past NFT airdrops have had similar themes and trading patterns.
In general:
The airdropped tokens hit their peak value in the first few days post-airdrop (but not on day one)
They trend downward over time
The NFT market sees a pump in the following week
Hunter Solaire pulled some great data on NFT trading volume and its impact on the last 3 major airdrop events with ENS, SOS and LOOKS.
The numbers below are NFT market weekly trading volume pre-airdrop, then post.
ENS $87.4M → $104.5M
SOS $97.2M → $111M
LOOKS $173.4M → $232.3M
As you can see, the NFT market sees a solid 20-30% bump in volume following these airdrops.
Most are expecting similar action this time around.
The main questions for me are - is this crypto market backdrop stable enough for $BLUR to do well in the short term (not sure), and will $BLUR follow that trend down towards zero like those other 3 tokens (I don't think so - Blur is here to stay).
The other outstanding question - will this stimulus be enough to save our flailing NFTs?
📉 NFT Market Capitulation
Trading action at the end of last week felt like capitulation.
Doodles fell below 5 ETH and panic ensued as Pranksy started listing. Checks fell over 50% from local highs and bag holders feared a move to zero. CloneX seems to be in a death spiral.
So how bad is it?
By the Numbers:
Let's take a look at the 30-day floor price action on the major PFPs:
BAYC: 72.4 ETH -> 73 ETH (+1%)
MAYC: 16.2 ETH -> 15 ETH (-8%)
Azuki: 15.1 ETH -> 14.35 ETH (-5%)
Digi Genesis: 12.7 -> 7.8 ETH (-62%)
Moonbirds: 8.4 ETH -> 6.4 ETH (-31%)
Pudgy Penguins: 5.6 ETH -> 5.3 ETH (-6%)
Doodles: 7.97 ETH -> 4.5 ETH (-77%)
Clone X: 5.75 ETH -> 4.5 ETH (-27%)
Only BAYC is in the green on that entire list.
The rest are down anywhere from 5% to 77%, with Doodles, Moonbirds and DigiDaigaku Genesis hit the hardest.
There are individual reasons for the price action on each collection, but the broader theme is clear - the PFP sector has been bleeding hard.
The good news - PFPs are likely the first place new $BLUR liquidity will turn post-airdrop.
Will it be enough for a turnaround?
My bet is yes, we will see a 10-20% rebound in most major sets.
But time will tell.
🚚 What else is happening in NFTs?
A few other headlines from a busy weekend in the NFT market:
The NFT market trading volume jumped back over 20k ETH yesterday, likely in a Blur-airdrop front-run
Ryan Carson announced a major acquisition of 15 Bitcoin Punks for 183 ETH in a now-deleted tweet; the 121g Fund manager then gets roasted for the move
Claire Silver sees her Braindrops Genesis collection reach an 11 ETH floor, after Life in the West reinvigorates that set
A Solana takeover went down after Hadeswap acquired Solana Monkey Business project (a leading Solana NFT collection)
Frank DeGods announced a "resurrection" of 535 previously-burned DeGods on Bitcoin as Ordinals
Rug Radio PFPs reveal, but the floor falls 40% to 0.06 ETH
🌎 Around Crypto and Web3
A few other Crypto and Web3 headlines that caught my eye:
The crypto market rebounds slightly ahead of this morning's CPI print, with BTC at $21,800 (+0.6%) and ETH at $1,510 (+1.2%)
It seems that very few newcomers minted the Digi Dragons from the Super Bowl ad, with 70% going to existing wallets (as pointed out by NFT Statistics)
Solana's leading NFT marketplace Magic eden partners with Moonpay to accept credit cards
The Cozomo de- Medici Collection is donating 22 NFTs valued in the millions of dollars to the Los Angeles County Museum of Art
🚀 NFT Total Volume
Checks - VV Edition (879 ETH, 0.98 ETH Floor)
Otherdeeds (1,045 ETH, 1.56 ETH)
MAYC (861 ETH, 15 ETH)
UINTS (854 ETH, 0.02 ETH)
Doodles (821 ETH, 4.5 ETH)
📈 NFT Floor Price Increase
Lost Miners (37%, 0.32 ETH Floor)
Webaverse Genesis Pass (37%, 0.37 ETH)
a KID called BEAST (30%, 1.7 ETH)
Digi Heroes (26%, 2 ETH)
Dooplicator (13%, 0.3 ETH)
🗓 Upcoming NFT Mints and Reveals
Today is the most important day in weeks for the NFT space.
All eyes will be on that $BLUR airdrop coming at noon, and most focus will be in selling/buying that token in the first few hours.
If there are any incentives for continued Blur bidding, expect NFTs to jump.
As for today's drops - they could get overlooked a bit with all the token action. Tread carefully.
From Blockchain To Love Chain (9:00 a.m. ET)
Meme Labs - Arsonic drop (11:00 a.m. ET)
fourteen twenty-three (12:00 p.m. ET)
BLUR airdrop (12:00 p.m. ET)
KillaBears - Killa Burn (4:20 p.m. ET)
Porsche Phase 1 customization (TBD)
Enjoy this write-up? Follow along with me on Twitter @tyler_did_it or reach out via email tyler.warner@luckytrader.com.
For all volume and floor price data, see Lucky Trader's Project Rankings page.
For all upcoming mints, see Lucky Trader's Project Schedule page.