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Super Bowl, Super Let Down
Expectations were as high as ever headed into Super Bowl Sunday for NFTs, but the day ended in disaster. What went wrong and what happens now?
TylerD's Market Summary
Today's headlines include:
-Digi Super Bowl ad fallout
-Super Burn Sunday burns holders
-The open edition meta just won't die
-SEC comes for $BUSD
🐉 $6.5M for Twitter Followers?
All eyes were on the highly anticipated DigiDaigaku Dragons Super Bowl ad, which cost the Limit Break team spent $6.5M.
We got the ad early in the game (first 30 minutes), with the QR code bright and centered.
And those QR code scanners were rewarded with - Gabe Leydon.
Over 99% of successful QR code scanners were not taken to a mint page for the Dragons; instead, they were directed to Gabe Leydon's Twitter page and directed to like and RT.
The reality is, most successful minters were those grinding alpha groups who circulated the mint link the second it was posted, leaving most of mainstream America to settle with Gabe as their prize.
Digi Super Bowl Fallout - Pros and Cons
Let's start with the bad news.
The market dumped immediately after the ad, with the floor falling from 12 ETH to 8 ETH in about 1 hour(currently 8.4 ETH)
Community sentiment may be even worse than the price action, with several calling the ad a laughing stock and doing zero to onboard more users
But for my optimists out there:
Gabe did pick up ~200k Twitter followers over the weekend, and he is approaching 1M - more than almost any other founder
The Digi Dragons were a nice stimulus for minters, trading at 0.5 ETH for the first hour before falling off to ~0.3 ETH
Did Gabe and the Limit Break team ultimately spend $6.5M to acquire 200k Twitter followers?
We will see how that chess move works out, but in the short term, expect more pain for holders with no more major events to look forward to in the near future.
🔥Super Burn Sunday Burns Holders
Jack Butcher's Checks have been the hottest NFT project for weeks.
The floor notably ran from its $8 mint to over $4,000 at peak, but price action was not great headed into the opening of the burn window on Sunday.
Well, the market did not like Super Burn Sunday.
As more and more Checks owners burned (or "migrated") their Checks Editions over to the new Originals collection, the price continued in just one direction - down.
By the Numbers:
Checks - VV Edition fell 37% on the day to 1 ETH, down over 50% from local highs.
The new collection created from the burns, Checks - VV Originals is sitting at 0.86 ETH
Over 5,000 Checks have been burned already, leaving the current Edition supply at ~10,900
Top sales include 8.8 ETH and 6 ETH on single-colored Checks
5 single check Checks have been created (required 64 burns)
This will be a telling week for how strong the Checks collector base is, and if they decide to stop the bleeding.
🔥 The Open Edition Meta Just Won't Die
The market wants to move on from open editions. We all do.
But they just keep coming.
Here is a quick round-up of headlines related to open editions from this past weekend:
Kevin Abosch closes his OE early, and it jumps 450% from 0.03 ETH mint to 0.14 ETH before settling at 0.1
Ness Graphics opens a new burn phase for B4NKRUP7CY (opens at 0.5 ETH)
Killa Bears announce Killa Burn for Valentine's Day, their open edition holds at 0.06 ETH (+200% from mint)
Vince Van Dough says no burn coming for Pepe Checks, announces Notable Pepes collection including raffles for Pepe Checks holders
I guess the Groundhog saw its shadow, and we have 6 more weeks of open editions before spring.
🚚 What else is happening in NFTs?
A few other headlines from a busy weekend in the NFT market:
The NFT market trading volume fell to the 15k-16k ETH per day range over the weekend, the lowest level in 2 months
Bitcoin Punks were the talk of Saturday, with their floor reaching 2 ETH+ enabled by Emblem Vault (and people trading BTC Punks on ETH)
Justin Aversano jumped in on the BTC NFT rush, launching a new photo NFT collection "Colin in the Car"
Life in the West from Roope Rainisto in the Braindrops collection surged 150% to a whopping 6.3 ETH floor
A KID called BEAST went ultimate Beast mode, running to a 1.7 ETH floor on Sunday before retracing (now 1.2)
🌎 Around Crypto and Web3
A few other Crypto and Web3 headlines that caught my eye:
The SEC plans to sue stablecoin issuer Paxos over their use of the Binance USD (BUSD) stablecoin; crypto falls slightly on the news, with Bitcoin at $21,700 (-1%) and ETH at $1,490 (2.6%)
In positive crypto news, the Bank of Brazil will allow citizens to pay taxes in crypto
$UFO tokens surge as "UFO" trends on Twitter Sunday
Jeremy Booth debuts new collab with Wrangler in "refresh your metadata" moment for Boots holders
A CryptoPunk is going to the Pompidou, with Yuga Labs set to send Punk #110 to the French Museum's permanent collection
🚀 NFT Total Volume
Checks - VV Edition (1,612 ETH, 1.06 ETH Floor)
PartyBear (1,586 ETH, 15.15 ETH)
Digi Dragon Eggs (1,469 ETH, 0.28 ETH)
Otherdeeds (1,210 ETH, 1.56 ETH)
BAYC (939 ETH, 71.4 ETH)
📈 NFT Floor Price Increase
Life in the West (150%, 6.3 ETH Floor)
Candy Collective (46%, 0.2 ETH)
Braindrops (31%, 0.17 ETH)
Chungos (14%, 0.15 ETH)
Porsche 911 (8%, 2.56 ETH)
🗓 Upcoming NFT Mints and Reveals
Today will be an interesting day, with weekend volume at 2-month lows and negative crypto news weighing over the market.
The Art Blocks drop is the most exciting, as Mount Vitruvius is an established artist with a major following. It may go under the radar launching at a different time than usual here at 8 am.
The Rug Radio reveal is likely the wildcard today, and we should see some action on rares given the whales in this collection.
Art Blocks Presents: Renders Game by MountVitruvius (8:00 a.m. ET)
Memes by 6529 (11:00 a.m. ET)
JOYWORLD JOYsmilies (12:00 p.m. ET)
Rug Radio Faces of Web3 - reveal (TBD)
Enjoy this write-up? Follow along with me on Twitter @tyler_did_it or reach out via email firstname.lastname@example.org.
For all volume and floor price data, see Lucky Trader's Project Rankings page.
For all upcoming mints, see Lucky Trader's Project Schedule page.