PROOF's Pivotal Moment

The stakes were as high as ever for Kevin Rose and the PROOF team headed into the Moonbirds roadmap update yesterday. Did they seize the moment? Or let it slip?

TylerD

Mar 03, 2023

TylerD's Market Summary

GM!

🎯 PROOF Doubles Down on Art

Yesterday's PROOF roadmap update was a make-it or break-it moment for that ecosystem.

Sentiment, and prices, had been falling for months.

With it all on the line, Kevin Rose and Justin Mezzell did their best to turn things around in a well-executed (but lengthy) 90-minute+ stream providing insight into where they went astray and providing a glimpse of the future.

The update was comprehensive, honest, and much-needed for this community.

The objective of the stream was for listeners to:

Understand who "they" are
Know the purpose
See where they're going

PROOF’s goals for the major roadmap update

I think that was accomplished.

And putting the tactical updates aside, I thought the most interesting part of the video was KRO basically admitting they let the success of Moonbirds get to their heads and they lost their way - an act of vulnerability.

The PROOF Update TLDR

The primary update is a renewed focus on art - the original PROOF vision.

They shared a new "north star" in their purpose "to create unique experiences for collectors to connect with artists to own and champion their art."

This theme was carried into Moonbirds, which they rebranded as "The Art Collector's PFP."

Moonbirds finally have a why - the art collector’s PFP (don’t tell that to Punks holders)

Here's a quick rundown of the rest of the major updates:

Highrise has been shelved (product didn't work in the bear)
Token is not coming soon (though not dead)
PROOF pass holders will turn into Moonbirds Elders at the time of sunset
The Diamond Nest will be the final nest, with a Diamond Exhibition final prize
The Moonbirds DAO (Lunar Society) will be funded with $2M and Moonbirds
New details on Mythics, their eggs, and a re-roll feature
Oddities are unchanged
Trait-focused art drops are restarted and coming soon for Moonbirds
Moonbirds will receive periodic art drops starting Jan 1, 2025

There were a lot of updates, but at the same time, not really that much.

The major products are delayed or shelved, and there is a new re-focus on art across the brand (this is the 5-second TLDR).

Previews of Highrise were shared before Kevin explained why it was shelved

My takeaways:

Good: The re-focus on art was a smart one, and the team did a nice job providing an identity for what Moonbirds are (was lacking for months)
Bad: Shelving highrise, delaying the token, and stopping nesting (essentially because too many people did it) highlighted a lack of vision for the team over the past 12 months and a major burn of company funds

How did the market react?

Pretty much as expected - it sold off.

PROOF at 16.7 ETH (-10%)
Moonbirds at 6.25 ETH (-7%)
Oddities at 0.88 ETH (-10%)

This sell-off was seemingly encouraged by the team, as they want to "turn over" their holder base into those aligned with the vision.

Moonbirds sold off during and after the stream, stabilized, then fell more

So what happens now?

Volatility around the announcement was expected.

The key trend to watch going forward is community sentiment. Has it bottomed? Are holders starting to feel pride in their Moonbirds PFPs again?

That's what I'm watching the closest.

The bull case: the community rallies around this new re-focused brand, KRO and the team use their huge war chest and connections to bring top artists to the ecosystem, and prices slowly grind back up (tho ATH of 40 ETH is not seen again)
The bear case: art drops for Moonbirds holders are not that valuable (they're either 10k editions or are trait-gated and only a few receive), "art collectors" don't flock to buy Moonbirds as their PFPs, and there is not that much demand for Mythics

While I thought the meeting was a net positive, I'm still leaning with the bear case here.

We will see how it plays out.

Will the community rally around the new art focus? Time will tell.

🚚 What else is happening in NFTs?

Here is a list of the other major headlines from Thursday:

Trading volume ticked up 20% to 47k ETH on Thursday, up slightly from Monday with Blur holding 78% share
Most NFTs were red on the day and down in the 5%-10% range (in line with the crypto dip); basically a chop week with a mix of red and green each day
A fake version of Yuga's TwelveFold collection was inscribed on Bitcoin ahead of the official release, highlighting the scams and risks of trading NFTs on Bitcoin in this current environment
PROOF announced a new art collab project with the Pace Verso gallery called "Archive of Feelings" coming on March 15
Chimpers debuted a new Ocean Quest mini-game arcade where holders can win prizes
KillaBears and Cryptoon Goonz both announced new reward systems for holders in what is becoming a new trend
OpenSea provided a new bulk listing feature in its marketplace with Seaport 1.4
Momoguro sold out its 0.22 ETH mint for its 8,888 supply and instantly rocketed to the 0.7 - 0.8 ETH range on secondary (now 0.74 ETH)

Leonidas was one of the first to highlight the fake Yuga Ordinals inscribed on BTC - be careful out there

🌎 Around Crypto and Web3

A few other Crypto and Web3 headlines that caught my eye:

The crypto market dipped hard late Thursday night; BTC -4% at $22,300 and ETH -4% at $1,565; $PRIME -20% to $3.23, $BLUR -7% to $0.73
Magic Eden shared plans for "Mint Madness," a collection of more than 12 free gaming mints across Polygon, Ethereum and Solana throughout the month of March with a large prize pool for top traders
Polygon released an open-sourced "Polygon ID" system with aim to provide user verification and trusted digital identity without typical KYC requirements
INSRT Labs raised $2.2M for a new NFT Finance Protocol with goal to provide NFT investing access to a wider range of investors

🚀 NFT Total Volume

Azuki (6,839 ETH, 14.6 ETH Floor)
MAYC (6,407 ETH, 15.3 ETH)
Momoguro Holoself (3,780 ETH, 0.74 ETH)
BAKC (3,638 ETH, 7.4 ETH)
Moonbirds (3,199 ETH, 6.17 ETH)

📈 NFT Floor Price Increase

Unordinals (180%, 1.15 ETH Floor)
JOYWORLD Joysmiles (90%, 0.09 ETH)
VeeFriends (26%, 6 ETH)
Weirdo Ghost Gang (19%, 0.46 ETH)
byteGans (10%, 1.72 ETH)

🗓 Upcoming NFT Mints and Reveals

Today is mostly an art drop day, and art has not been performing well lately.

Art Blocks saw their lowest volume days in months this week, and that does not bode well for Cole Sternberg's drop today (with a 0.21 ETH resting price).

Yesterday's crypto crash will make NFT holders antsy, as always, and it likely stopped Momoguro's momentum yesterday.

The weekend action for NFTs is likely driven by what happens in crypto today - if it stabilizes, there may be room for some green on the board; otherwise, more red.

Memes by 6529 (11:00 a.m. ET); 0.069 ETH mint
Womanhood by Amber Vittoria (1:00 p.m. ET); 0.07 ETH mint
Art Blocks Presents: chaos comes with the summer haze by Cole Sternberg (1:00 p.m. ET); Dutch auction
end of Sartoshi - Pop Wonder Drop (TBD)

Enjoy this write-up? Follow along with me on Twitter @tyler_did_it or reach out via email tyler.warner@luckytrader.com.

For all volume and floor price data, see Lucky Trader's Project Rankings page.

For all upcoming mints, see Lucky Trader's Project Schedule page.