Prediction Markets Go Mainstream
Plus the Hawk Tuah girl has made a notable PFP change to a leading NFT - find out which one.
TylerD's Market Summary
GM!
Today's top news:
Crypto majors down 1-2%, SOL falls further
Bloomberg adds Polymarket to its terminal
Phantom introduces new in-wallet Search function
Time dot fun raises $3M for tokenizing time vision
Haliey Welch changes PFP to a Mad Lads
💡 Polymarket Hits Bloomberg Terminal
Unless you've been living under a rock, you've heard of prediction markets and the leader Polymarket.
They've become a darling of Crypto Twitter and seem positioned to be a true breakout crypto app this year.
And now Polymarket is going even more mainstream - all while competition heats up.
What Happened?
Yesterday, Bloomberg announced that it would incorporate Polymarket lines into its famous Bloomberg Terminal.
They are starting with the primary election market odds (currently Trump 50% to Kamala 49%) with potential to expand.
That primary presidential market bet, by the way, has a whopping $765M bet on it. Well on track to pass $1B before November.
This comes after mainstream media has already embraced Polymarket lines.
Multiple big players like CNBC have done segments with Polymarket bets shown front and center on screen (typically election bets), they're talked about on popular podcasts like "All-In" and have been integrated within newsletter platforms like Substack.
Polymarket is everywhere - and that omnipresence is driving big growth.
By The Numbers
August is set to close tomorrow, and Polymarket is set to close another record-smashing month.
Some key numbers (and month-over-month change):
Monthly Volume: $454M (+17%)
Monthly Active Traders: 61,502 (+38%)
Monthly New Accounts: 68,661 (+6%)
Open Interest: $103M (+20%)
Notably all 4 of those metrics are ATHs for Polymarket.
But Polymarket won't have time to rest on its laurels following this success.
Competitors are popping up in droves, and a big one launches next week.
Predict dot Fun Brings Native Yield to Prediction Markets
Prediction markets are coming to Blast and unlocking native yield.
Predict.fun announced yesterday that it plans to launch on September 3, with 879,000+ Blast Gold in rewards for early users.
And they've already gone on attack, sharing their differentiators from Polymarket, including:
Native Yield
Higher liquidity
More precision
Substantial incentives
Those are some lofty promises, and much more difficult to execute than to promise. But if they can pull those 4 factors off, they will be a force to reckon with.
The Native Yield advantage is an important one, as opportunity cost remains a major impact factor on Polymarket.
Some conservative bettors like to play highly likely markets with 90%+ odds to capture a few points of yield fairly safely (i.e. Will Alabama go Republican in the election at 98%).
That challenge those conservative bettors face is opportunity cost of locking their funds up for months to capture that small yield. With Predict dot fun, they will capture Blast's native yield while their funds are locked in bets.
It's a big differentiator.
As for more liquidity and precision, if they can pull those off, those will be even bigger differentiators in my opinion. But those are some of the hardest things to do in prediction markets.
Conclusion
It's clear that Polymarket has had big success this year and has gone more mainstream than any other crypto-native app, perhaps ever.
And that success has inspired many competitors to launch.
Expect even more attention on this sector in the months to come leading up to the election, and then we will see which have legitimate staying power.
Game on.
🚚 What else is happening in NFTs?
Here is the list of other notable headlines from the day in NFTs:
ETH led NFT trading volume with $5.3M on the day; Solana was next with $3M, and then BTC with $2.7M
ETH NFT leaders were green on the day up 3-4%; Pudgy +3% at 10.74 ETH, BAYC +4% at 13.65 ETH, Azuki even at 4.96, Milady -1% at 3.55; Punks up to 30 ETH floor
Skulls of Luci (+40%) and alignDRAW (+35%) were other notable top movers
Some notable big sales on the day included a 99.95 ETH Autoglyph, a 55 ETH ACK PFP "LaserEyes" and a Hoodie Punk for 101
BTC NFT leaders were mixed; NodeMonkes +4% at 0.14 BTC, Puppets -2% at 0.091 BTC, Quantum Cats -6% at 0.261
The Runes leaders were mostly red; DOG -1% at $283M mc, RSIC -2% at $67M mc, PUPS -18% to $37M
Solana NFTs were mixed; Mad Lads +2% at 56.5 SOL, SMB Gen 2 -4% at 26, DeGods -4% at 29
Haliey Welch known as the Hawk Tuah girl has changed her PFP on X to a Mad Lads
💰 Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker
Here's a rundown of major token or airdrop news from the day:
Phantom introduced a new Search feature, allowing users to find any token or app directly in wallet
Fantasy Top added its 4th new wave of heroes on Thursday
Predict dot Fun announced it will go live on Blast on Sept 3 with 879k+ Blast Gold, marking the first prediction market with native yield to hit the market
Time dot fun announced a $3M raise to help further its mission of tokenizing people's time
Bloomberg added Polymarket data to its terminal
🌎 Around Crypto and Web3
A few other Crypto and Web3 headlines that caught my eye:
Crypto majors are slightly red; BTC -1% at $59,600; ETH -1% at $2,520, SOL -4% at $140
Memecoin majors are also slightly red with DOGE +1%, PEPE -1%, WIF -3%, BONK -3%, MOG -14%
Elon Musk won the dismissal of a lawsuit claiming he had conducted insider trading with Dogecoin
Avalanche introduced TixChain, an Avax L1 tokenizing 25M tickets and bringing them onchain with ties to the UEFA Champions League, Europa League and more
Portal Pay is going live on Apechain
🚀 Memecoin Movers
$BRUH (+92%, $18M market cap, ETH)
$KEYCAT (+78%, $11M market cap, BASE)
$POOH (+46%, $12M market cap, ETH)
$KEROSENE (+40%, $31M market cap, ETH)
$PORK (+13%, $51M market cap, ETH)
📈 NFT Floor Price Increase (ETH)
LUCI (40%, 9.07 ETH Floor)
alignDRAW (35%, 1.15 ETH)
XBORG (30%, 0.64 ETH)
Lazy Lions (29%, 0.09 ETH)
DigiDaigaku (24%, 2.5 ETH)
🗓 Upcoming Mints and Events
Today is a somewhat busy day of mints, mostly focused in PFPs.
There's the Pawsome Feline Parade (PFP) launch on Bitcoin, Froggy Friends on Base and Solami Killers on Solana.
And Alan Bolton is on deck as today's meme card artist.
See the full list and dive in for more details with Swizzy's daily mint monitor.
0xAstra (6:00 a.m. ET)
Memes by 6529 (11:00 a.m. ET)
Pawsome Feline Parade (12:00 p.m. ET)
Froggy Friends (12:00 p.m. ET)
MEBS (2:00 p.m. ET)
Enjoy this write-up and/or want to sponsor the Morning Minute? Follow along with me on Twitter @tyler_did_it or reach out via email to tyler.warner@luckytrader.com.