Has The NFT Rally Stalled?
January showed signs of a bull run across multiple sectors of the NFT market, but there are several indicators that the run might be over. Has the music stopped?
TylerD's NFT Market Summary
Take a minute to catch up on the latest in the Web3 space with today's NFT market analysis, top movers, and upcoming mints:
🐻 Have NFTs Flipped to Bear Mode?
Early January was fun.
Daily trading volume was coming in at 20,000-30,000 ETH per day.
All of the major PFP projects were delivering on roadmap plans or hyping upcoming drops.
Art Blocks were hot, fresh off the Friendship Bracelet airdrop, and all of the drops were being botted.
Then the art momentum carried into open editions and Memes, which soared in value and popularity.
Gas wars were back and people were setting alarm clocks for mints again. All bull market signs.
How NFT traders were feeling in mid-January
But the vibes seem to be shifting now, from bull to bear.
Daily trading volume for the past week is down to ~17,000 ETH per day.
The PFPs have "shot their shot" and now there is much less to look forward to in the near future (putting Yuga aside).
Art Blocks market feels dead, with Squiggles down 25%, Bracelets down 33% and new mints reaching min price on the regular.
Memes and open editions are both showing signs of a local blow off top, with the Memes full set down almost 50% from its local high and the editions market seemingly exhausted after a weekend of big-named artists.
How quickly the vibes can change
There are individual explanations for each of these, but packaged together they do show a trend.
But with the Blur airdrop looming in just two weeks plus the upcoming Yuga mint, we might be getting the stimulus needed to keep the music playing.
↩️ Blur Bests OpenSea
In a shocking development yesterday, Blur managed to bypass OpenSea's blocklist by creating a new exchange system on OpenSea's Seaport protocol.
What It Means:
All of the projects which had been effectively blacklisted by OpenSea are now actively trading on Blur (i.e. Sewer Passes, Valhalla, etc.). Blur immediately picked up 10% marketshare on those projects.
Currently Blur has royalties for those projects enabled, but nothing is forcing them to do so. If they desire, they can turn those royalties back to zero.
This battle for marketshare between Blur and OpenSea - it's just beginning.
🚚 What else is moving in NFTs?
A few notable headlines from yesterday:
Otherdeeds led the volume board again but fell 3% to 1.77 ETH
Doodles saw a spike in volume ahead of the Dooplicator utility launch happening today, with wearables for Doodles 2 will be generated and the Gaia marketplace is going live
RTFKT Space Pods are surprisingly stable at 0.45 ETH ahead of the pod burning event going live today
end of Sartoshi up 5% to 0.064 after the founder shared details of what the new mint pass mechanics will be, featuring a 1.7% shot to win; first artist is Patrick Amadon
RTFKT Pods hold at 0.45 ETH even after teaser release
A few other crypto and Web3 headlines that caught my eye:
Sorare has signed a major four-year licensing deal with the Premier League, paying "tens of millions of pounds" for the rights
Oh Baby Game announced a $6 million seed round co-led by eGirl Capital and Synergis Capital, along with a plan for a multi-game rollout, starting with "What The Kart."
Your neighborhood jeweler, Jared, applied for trademarks for digital diamonds and other metaverse goods
Twitter wants to enter the payments business, starting with fiat but with a goal of moving to crypto
Oh Baby Game shares plans for "What The Kart" after raise
🚀NFT Total Volume
Otherdeeds (2,475 ETH, 1.77 ETH Floor)
Sewer Pass (854 ETH, 2.4 ETH)
MAYC (767 ETH, 14.8 ETH)
BAKC (650 ETH, 7.6 ETH)
Doodles (627 ETH, 6.6 ETH)
📈Floor Price Increase
DenDekaDen (72%, 1.5 ETH Floor)
Kanpai Pandas (20%, 2.1 ETH)
ZenChests (18%, 0.59 ETH)
mfers (15%, 1.43 ETH)
Digi Villains (13%, 0.43 ETH)
🗓Today's Mints and Reveals
Gradis is the new mint of the day.
Their combination of using a game to win allowlist spots, coupled with 200 XCOPY-designed NFTs in the mix, will generate solid demand for its 0.05 ETH mint price. And they will likely carry a premium into reveal.
The Dooplicator activation is the wildcard today, as there could be a scramble to mint (and acquire) the very first wearables generated on Flow. Definitely one to watch.
Gradis (9:00 a.m. ET)
Toshies - reveal (10:00 a.m. ET)
Shellz Orb (3:00 p.m. ET)
Doodles Dooplicator Activtation (TBD)
Kubz - crafting opens (TBD)
Enjoy this write-up? Follow along with me on Twitter @tyler_did_it or reach out via email firstname.lastname@example.org.
For all volume and floor price data, see Lucky Trader's Project Rankings page.
For all upcoming mints, see Lucky Trader's Project Schedule page.